As a media person who has been concerned about the development of the optoelectronics industry for a long time, he has always believed that although the optoelectronics industry is a new and rising industry, it will inevitably be affected by the global economic environment. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the economic environment.
Entering August, global stock markets have plummeted under the lead of European and American stock markets. Originally, financial market volatility is like tides and tides, flowers blooming and falling naturally, but the recent decline has been extraordinary: many days have risen or fallen by more than 2%; in less than 20 days, many stock markets have fallen. Around 15%. There was no major movement for just 3 days, and on August 18 European and American stock markets plunged by more than 4%. The German stock market, Europe's largest economy, fell nearly 6%, and fell by about 25% in 20 days.
　　
　　While the stock market plummeted, there were several eye-catching trends: (1) Despite being downgraded, U.S. Treasury sales were booming, and the 10-year bond interest rate hit a record low today-1.98%; (2) Although the Chicago futures market margin increased by 22 %, but the price of gold continued to rise to new highs every day, breaking through US$1,881 per ounce today, while oil prices plummeted, falling by nearly 6% on the 18th; (3) Despite the ban on short selling, the decline in the German DAX led to a sell-off in the entire European market; (4) ) The stocks of all European and American banks and financial institutions have fallen by about 30% since August 1.
　　
　　All this is related to the increased possibility of a second dip in the global economy, even though Morgan Stanley analysts lowered their forecast for global economic growth from 4.2% in 2011 to 3.9% in a report Wednesday night. From 4.5% in 2012, it was revised down to 3.8%. In developed countries, it was lowered from 2.4% to 1.5%. However, according to the actual economic performance in the second quarter of 2011, the GDP growth rate of the United States was 1.3, Germany was 0.1%, and France was 0%. Many analysts now believe that there is a 25% chance that the European and American economies will enter a recession in 2012, because Germany and France is the first and second largest economy in Europe. However, 40% of Germany's exports are within the European Union. If Spain and Italy, the third and fourth largest economies, fall, Germany will not escape bad luck. What's more troublesome is that with high debt levels in the United States and Europe, and the European debt crisis has not been lifted, if interest rates are already zero, if the bottom is reached twice, it will take a long time to get out of the trough. In a globalized world, no country can cleanse itself, and China looks glamorous, but if the world bottoms twice, low growth and high inflation will be the prospects of China's economy in the next few years.
　　
　　The most critical period for the global economy will be the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012. At this time, the fiscal and monetary policy stimulus of various countries will expire, and it will be a foregone conclusion whether it will bottom out twice.